10% ownership of Intel should worry the frontier labs

reading some tea leaves through red-teaming and red tape.

Predictions are hard, but here goes:

Next Month

White House outlines a “Strategic Technology and Compute” program that converts select subsidies into equity across chips, cloud, and AI infrastructure. Pitched as a sovereign wealth fund a la Norway. Biggest advantage is grid access.

Nov 2025

Omnibus appropriations include a rider authorizing equity-for-grants swaps in “critical digital infrastructure.” Treasury and Commerce get reporting duties to Congress on positions and risk.

Q1 2026

A high-profile AI misuse incident triggers democrats wanting hearings, and get unexpected admin support. DHS designates frontier model training and deployment as covered critical infrastructure, giving access to federal compute credits to safety rules and pre-release testing under guidance.

Q2 2026

Congress passes the AI Safety and Compute Act. Training runs above a defined FLOPs threshold require a federal license, with eligibility conditioned on access to subsidized compute and convertible government warrants in licensees. Some companies refuse; they lose grid access and get stuck in permitting.

Q3 2026

DoD invokes Defense Production Act to expand domestic advanced packaging and AI-grade power infrastructure. Funding for compute capacity comes with equity options in compute suppliers. Inititally these options are not exercised, but during big news weeks they are quietly made.

Nov 2026

Midterms deliver narrow majorities for a national tech-security agenda, fueled by the fears from the earlier incident. Congress authorizes a United States AI Authority to supervise licensed training runs and manage federal stakes tied to compute and safety infrastructure.

H1 2027

Regulators secure “golden share” vetoes in licensed frontier labs for release decisions above the FLOPs threshold. Treasury aggregates minority positions across chip, cloud, and model layers to coordinate policy. These are enriching to admin officials, who sell secondaries.

Q3 2027

Capital stress at multiple labs meets rising training costs. The government offers loan guarantees, discounted power, and priority access to DPA-backed compute in exchange for convertible preferred equity and release-governance covenants. Folks who avoid this get red-taped out of datacenter buildouts.

Q4 2027

Congress passes the Strategic Models Act. It creates a National Frontier Model Program and authorizes majority acquisitions of designated Frontier Model Operators. Statute mandates a government-owned, contractor-operated structure for day-to-day management. Chinese models are banned, forcing thousands of businessess to switch off the open stack.

Q1 2028

Treasury exercises conversions and conducts a tender. Government control crosses 51 percent in two labs and achieves control rights via a golden share in a third.

Q2 2028

Administrative integration. Equity of prior private investors is cashed out or converted to non-voting shares. Staff receive retention contracts under a lab-operator model.

Oct–Nov 7, 2028

Pre-election rollout frames USAI Labs as a permanent national capability. By Election Day, the core frontier labs are government-owned entities under DOE supervision with operator contracts in place, audited safety gates, and DPA-backed compute access.

Safety as the “entry?”

You can easily tell this story without the safety angle- just on strategic competition.

Is it bad?

I don’t know. I just think its credible. Intel ownership is something that feel fundamentally new, and because its a “failing” company it feels like a test of a broader idea.